The battle for the narrative of Russo-Ukrainian war one year in: inside Ukraine (Part 1)
While pundits might talk endlessly about Putin's imperialism or NATO provocations, a lot has been going on within Ukraine
A whole year has passed since the fateful day Russian armies decided to march into Ukrainian borders. While the suffering for people living in Ukraine has only increased, as the war rages on for a sufficient time it has allowed to sift through some of the noise (and a lot of absolute hubris) allowing to focus on the narrative. I will focus beyond the two most common opinions:
Russian invasion is a flagrant violation of territorial integrity of a democracy,
Russia is responding to the ever-rising NATO encirclement, whether intentionally or not caring enough about Russian red-lines
While both of these might have (a lot of) truth, I wanted to go beyond them and zoom in to the country bearing the brunt of suffering as a very complex hostile situation had been brewing internally, spilling over in 2014 with the onset of a Civil War and massive escalation with a powerful neighbor deciding to invade.
As for the morality my crux is:
It’s hard to deny Russia (or Putin as it suits you) has a lot of culpability. Regardless of the provocation, it is a conscious decision to march with troops into another country- especially one which hasn’t fired a shot at you. The same blame goes for US marching into Iraq/Vietnam/Serbia etc. and the same goes for Russia when it invades Afghanistan/ Georgia/ Ukraine. One imperial power’s mistakes don’t excuse next one’s actions.
That said, moral absolutes serve no purpose except grandstanding. Moral proclamations only make sense in relative manner. If it is fine for one power to violate territorial integrity flagrantly, that is the precedent which has been created and others following suit won’t be as outrageous as the rules of the “rules-based order” have been murky.
There is a major analysis to be done of this war by leaving out the proxy war angle of it (although, it’s important), thus by completely removing NATO/ US from the equation and focusing on the two key players- Russia and Ukraine. Indeed the narrative in this post will try to focus on it in isolation, before delving into larger geopolitics in the subsequent ones.
The Ukrainian Story
As I remarked above, let’s isolate the countries in question- Russia and Ukraine by ignoring all the other actors (such as NATO), and specifically zoom in to what was brewing inside the country under attack: Ukraine. Did a war break out of nowhere on 24th February 2022? A lot of media readers might believe that, but at least Eastern Ukraine had been a theater for civil war dating back to at least February 2014, in a secessionist war backed by Russians. This gruesome 8-year old conflict between the Ukrainian central government and it’s provinces is estimated to have taken 15,000 lives itself and was a subject of multiple international treaties- none of which stood the test of time. What precipitated these internal tensions? Did it start just in 2014? The answer lies in Ukraine’s ethnic and linguistic fault lines, partially as a result of historic conquests, partially how divisions were done in 1991. To expand, a lot of ethnic minorities in Ukraine primarily speak Russian in their daily lives, identify themselves as ethnic Russians (alongside Ukrainian) and this has created a lot of tensions between Ukrainian nationalists and this ethnic minority.
The first major trouble can be attribute to 2004 under what came to be known (romantically) as “Orange Revolution”. The party known as “Party of Regions” (PoR) on a platform of “making Russian a second language, a pro-Russian foreign policy, regionalist ideology and federalization of Ukraine” among other things won the second-round ballot in 2004 Presidential Election. More importantly, the election map looked like this (blue representing the vote for “Party of Regions”). However complaints of election irregularities, a lot of complaints from EU/US, followed by widespread protests in the Western parts (which had lost the election and supported the other party) brought things to a standstill and election results were nullified by Supreme Court of Ukraine. In a subsequent runoff elections, the Party of Regions lost by 5 points.
If this would have been sour for the ethnic Russian minorities in the East and South, the fortunes would be reversed 6 years later as the same leader from Party of Regions- Viktor Yanukovych- finally won the Presidential Election in 2010, and despite initial complaints and challenges from losing candidate (Yulia Tymoshenko) the results were conceded in an election considered “fair” by “international observers”. Among the issues raised again by PoR were status of Russian language, closer ties to Russia. What is noteworthy again is the map of electoral results- the blue being PoR while the huge Western part voting against. Notably Yanukovych himself is from Donetsk region.
The government of Yanukovych got mired with allegations of corruption (including of “regional cronyism” favoring members in cabinet, police from Donbas area). A notable controversy was arrest of his rival Tymoshenko on charges of corruption/embezzlement during her reign as PM. Another law which created a major rift was language law which while continuing to recognize Ukrainian as state language, increased autonomy of regional languages by province- including mandating regional languages for official purposes. However what really set the tone for dissent was his backing out of the trade deal with EU in favor of economic union with Russia and it’s allies (after pressure from Russia through tariffs/ import bans). This led to a series of protests, famously known as Euromaidan protests- which led to a lot of bloodshed including firing from the police on 100+ protesters and a lot of violence from the protesters- culminating in the removal of Yanukovych (who had to flee the country to Russia) and installing of opposition party. Debates remain whether this was constitutional as this was passed under “emergency/ treason” laws. One of the notable parties involved in the post-ouster temporary coalition government was the presence of far-right ultranationalist, neo-Nazi, anti-Russian party Svoboda who had a significant grassroots role to play in the Euromaidan revolution.
And thus, the war begins
So to summarize- in a country with ethnic fault-lines, where Eastern part has consistently voted for political candidates more favored towards promoting Russian as a second language, higher autonomy for provinces, and a more pro-Russia stance (given their own Russian roots historically) and has first seen an election overturned, just to have that candidate win 6 years later and being finally deposed by popular uprising starting from Western Ukraine with just one year left to go in his term, and being replaced by the opposition party. Further, one of the first acts of the new government was to repeal the previous government’s language laws (although it was put on hold). What was the reaction? There were tons of counter-protests, some started from before the overthrow, while the others intensified much more often into armed struggles after the overthrow. Most notably, Crimea- the province with highest Russian speaking-population was annexed by Russian troops after a (disputed) referendum. Further tensions continued to flare especially in the Eastern parts with pro-Russian and against the new government escalated, soon followed by capture of state provincial buildings in Donetsk and Luhansk (collectively known as Donbass) and declaration of new “republics” in these states under (unrecognized) referendums. In the backdrop of this, a new snap national election was organized where Petro Poroshenko (a rich magnate owning chocolate & media companies including ones which precipitated the Euromaidan revolution) won with low participation from many Eastern provinces, while no elections were held in much of Donbas. As a boycott, Party of Regions refused to participate, slowly disintegrating while some members formed the party Opposition Bloc on principally the opposition to Euromaidan and increased regionalism.
Here is a map of the election turnout by region:
This unfortunately was just the first episode in a civil war which has continued since then, with multiple ceasefires and international accords, just for them to broken within few days (and sometimes lasting even months) with both sides accusing each other. The most famous accords were Minsk I and Minsk II between Ukraine and it’s breakaway provinces of LPR and DPR, and Russia with deals facilitated by European powers such as France and Germany- with provisions to stop fighting, release political prisoners and increased autonomy for provinces. The central Ukrainian government saw increased militarization and a capture by the neo-Nazi far-right elements of society such as Azov brigade into the National Guard. The long protracted nature of the conflict for 8 years without much territories shifting, but resulting in continued hostilities has been described as a “frozen conflict”. However during this period, overt involvement of foreign actors increased significantly- with Russia sending increased support to rebel armies, while US government sending javelins and other ammunitions. This war had already claimed ~15,000 lives before the full-scale Russian invasion.
Situation worsens domestically even outside war theater
Meanwhile on the domestic front despite talks of wanting peace signalled quickly, Poroshenko oversaw the creation of an ethnic nationalist state based on the slogan “armiia, mova, vira” (meaning military, language, faith) bringing military worship, Ukrainian linguistic identity and Christian orthodoxy creating the new Unified Ukrainian orthodox churches. He undertook the glorification of extremely controversial figures like Stefan Bandera- allegedly engaged in ethnic cleansing of Jews and Poles during WW2- by honoring his army men and bestowing state benefits. Anti-semitism became more mainstream, and was at best tolerated and at worst, actively engaged in by powerful politicians.
Language became a medium for stifling Russian minorities, often under the guise of “decommunization” including removal of Russian signage in public areas like railways/ airports and mandating all information to be in either Ukrainian or English. An even more controversial law mandated all educational instruction at all levels across the nation be done in Ukrainian language except in two or more languages, namely English or one of the other official languages of the European Union but excluding Russian. Western provinces like Lviv outright banned Russian cultural products (books, music, movies). There were increased restrictions nationally on book imports from Russia. The most far-reaching of these laws came in 2019 under the name of “On protecting the functioning of the Ukrainian language as the state language” finally repealing the previous government’s linguistic law. Some of the notable controversial provisions included:
“made the use of Ukrainian compulsory in the work of some public authorities, in the electoral procedures and political campaigning, in pre-school, school and university education, in scientific, cultural and sporting activities, in book publishing and book distribution, in printed mass media, television and radio broadcasting, in economic and social life (commercial advertising, public events), in hospitals and nursing homes, and in the activities of political parties and other legal entities (e.g. non-governmental organizations) registered in Ukraine. The law requires every citizen to be proficient in Ukrainian and prevents access to "state positions" (members of parliament, civil servants, etc.) if their knowledge of Ukrainian is insufficient. Some special exemptions were provided for the Crimean Tatar language, other languages of indigenous peoples of Ukraine, the English language and the other official languages of the European Union; as languages of minorities that are not EU official languages, Russian, Belarusian and Yiddish are excluded from the exemptions.”
- Source
Thus basically despite a significant portion of the country speaking languages like Russian, the new regime instituted rules to effectively prevent huge segments of the population (especially in the Eastern regions) from seeking elected offices, and being able to participate in various public activities. Amongst other things, this not only deteroriated the domestic ill-will and Russo-Ukrainian relations, but also Ukrainian-Hungary relations.
Shortly after, the 2019 Ukrainian elections were held. Volodomyr Zelensky crushed Poroshenko following a lot of his scandals & authoritarian overreach. However notably the Eastern regions supported the candidate from Donestk- Yuriy Buyko- fighting on a platform for “closer relations with Russia” while no elections were held in much of Donbas (and of course Crimea).
Zelensky himself started turning authoritarian with time, banning 3 TV channels, reversing the appointment of 2 Constitutional Court judges who had limited his authority, targeting political opposition including jailing his predecessor Poroshenko. He also jailed the head of leading opposition party, the pro-Russian Opposition Platform for his closeness to Russia. He also was highlighted in corruption in Pandora Papers. One of his platforms during the election was to bring the War in Donbas to an end and when he reached a settlement with Russia, DPR, LPR in 2019, it led to increased protests by nationalists and falling out with key Azov battalion (who were a key part of National Guard by now), eventually capitulating and forming an alliance of convenience with not just Azov, but other far-right groups such as C14 and Rights Sector including even honoring their member with “Hero of Ukraine”. Essentially the peace-process Zelensky was working towards got undermined from within thus continuing ceasefire violations and open hostilities.
The final chapter
The war in Donbas had no peaceful resolution to be seen, going strong for 7 years, there was no domestic appetite for truce, a lot of hardliners were now in the top positions of the military. All throughout Russia had been engaging in proxy warfare by supporting the rebels in the Eastern region (despite official denials). Following the arrest of pro-Russian opposition leader Medvechuk, Russia started amassing troops on it’s Western border. This also coincided with US’s new government under Biden, which significantly increased NATO military buildup, exercises in this region. This followed a series of continued escalations from Russia throughout 2021, as the War in Donbas continued unfolding but now with thousands of Russian troops. Finally in February 2022, Russian government became the first country to officially recognize the breakaway provinces of LPR and DPR as independent republics thus bringing in the pretext of a “humanitarian intervention” to escalate it’s involvement to full-scale as opposed to proxy covert efforts.
Above is the summary of what was happening inside Ukraine, the linguistic fault-lines, increasing hostilities and deteriorating relations with it’s bigger neighbor. The above story might be unfulfilling to either those proclaiming rebuilding of Russian Empire, or NATO expansion causing provocation. I intentionally left out details of foreign interference in this post, as I wanted to focus to the maximum extent on the internal situation. I will follow those up in the next post having deeper look into what was going in Russia and United States. However as the war has dragged on for a year, caused too many casualties and seems to be raging on for the near future, it is worth understanding the internal story of the country everyone is opining on before looking at external factors worsening the internal crisis and eventual invasion.
What were Russian motivations? A combination of imperialistic overtones, bilateral disputes, semblance of humanitarian concern and increasing threat felt from NATO invasions, color revolutions and expansion, deep dive in Part 2 of this series.
Great article! Why is it so difficult for "professional journalists" to provide this kind of in-depth and nuanced reporting?